QUOTE
CES 2005 Special Report: Dual-Layer Standard May Disappear Soon
Written by Gundeep Hora
Monday, 17 January 2005
Dual-Layered (DL) DVD writers may be affordable, but the question of concern is the media prices. The price per DL media averages out to $10.00, which is shockingly high. We talked to manufacturers at this year’s CES about prices and what they thought about DL media in general. The replies we received were far from positive and disappointing. According to a few blank media providers, DL standard may not have a bright future ahead of it. The reason is the upcoming Blu-Ray and HD DVD standards that are supported by world’s top most corporations.
Due to the aforementioned standards, DL simply appears to be redundant and more of a filler in the industry until Blu-Ray and HD DVD emerge in mass quantities. As far as prices are concerned, you can probably expect them to drop $6.00 to $4.00 per disc, but not much lower than that. Of course, prices are dependant on customer demand, but that was the general price figures we received during our meetings.
Verbatim seems to be enjoying the sales revenue with their DL media at high prices. Industry insiders reported that Verbatim was one of the first ones to completely focus their attention on DL media and hire an Asian firm for their CD-R and CD-RW media. Due to this, Verbatim was the first one to bring DL media into the market at such high prices and if the availability remains scarce, Verbatim is going to see their profits skyrocket this year. Many have reported that Verbatim’s goal with high priced DL media was to bring in as much in sales revenue as possible. When we asked manufacturers about the delay in their DL media, they reported that generating DL media in mass quantities is far more complicated than regular CD-R and CD-RW discs, and it requires quite a bit of financial resources in the production stage. The failure rate of DL disc in production is also one of the highest among all media variations, which also explains higher prices for these products.
Manufacturers also informed us that CD-R and CD-RW has significant life span in the industry. They expect the market for the aforementioned media to be fairly stable for the next two years, if not more. Regular DVD media also holds stable market shares and should drop in prices even more this year.
Currently, manufacturers are waiting for the next move from Blu-Ray and HD DVD media, and how they challenge the production costs and general market trend throughout 2005. Only then they will be able to determine the final price points for DL discs.
In summary, don’t expect DL prices to reach regular DVD disc prices this year. The popularity of the DL standard will definitely rise in 2005, but not to specific strengths. On the other hand, regular DVD media should also drop in prices significantly this year. High-quality DL writers will soon enter the market in vast quantities and features, which should give you a good enough choice for your selection. Until then, all we can do is wait for Blu-Ray and HD DVD to better predict the future of portable storage market.
UPDATE 01-17-2004: Many readers pointed out that you can purchase a DL writer for $65.00, which is true, but we were referring to writers from manufacturers such as BenQ, Pioneer and Plextor that all retail around $150.00, if not more. To make the statement more clear, we have decided to update our opening statement to generalize more brands and price points. We apologize for the confusion we may have caused, and thanks for taking the time to correct us.
Written by Gundeep Hora
Monday, 17 January 2005
Dual-Layered (DL) DVD writers may be affordable, but the question of concern is the media prices. The price per DL media averages out to $10.00, which is shockingly high. We talked to manufacturers at this year’s CES about prices and what they thought about DL media in general. The replies we received were far from positive and disappointing. According to a few blank media providers, DL standard may not have a bright future ahead of it. The reason is the upcoming Blu-Ray and HD DVD standards that are supported by world’s top most corporations.
Due to the aforementioned standards, DL simply appears to be redundant and more of a filler in the industry until Blu-Ray and HD DVD emerge in mass quantities. As far as prices are concerned, you can probably expect them to drop $6.00 to $4.00 per disc, but not much lower than that. Of course, prices are dependant on customer demand, but that was the general price figures we received during our meetings.
Verbatim seems to be enjoying the sales revenue with their DL media at high prices. Industry insiders reported that Verbatim was one of the first ones to completely focus their attention on DL media and hire an Asian firm for their CD-R and CD-RW media. Due to this, Verbatim was the first one to bring DL media into the market at such high prices and if the availability remains scarce, Verbatim is going to see their profits skyrocket this year. Many have reported that Verbatim’s goal with high priced DL media was to bring in as much in sales revenue as possible. When we asked manufacturers about the delay in their DL media, they reported that generating DL media in mass quantities is far more complicated than regular CD-R and CD-RW discs, and it requires quite a bit of financial resources in the production stage. The failure rate of DL disc in production is also one of the highest among all media variations, which also explains higher prices for these products.
Manufacturers also informed us that CD-R and CD-RW has significant life span in the industry. They expect the market for the aforementioned media to be fairly stable for the next two years, if not more. Regular DVD media also holds stable market shares and should drop in prices even more this year.
Currently, manufacturers are waiting for the next move from Blu-Ray and HD DVD media, and how they challenge the production costs and general market trend throughout 2005. Only then they will be able to determine the final price points for DL discs.
In summary, don’t expect DL prices to reach regular DVD disc prices this year. The popularity of the DL standard will definitely rise in 2005, but not to specific strengths. On the other hand, regular DVD media should also drop in prices significantly this year. High-quality DL writers will soon enter the market in vast quantities and features, which should give you a good enough choice for your selection. Until then, all we can do is wait for Blu-Ray and HD DVD to better predict the future of portable storage market.
UPDATE 01-17-2004: Many readers pointed out that you can purchase a DL writer for $65.00, which is true, but we were referring to writers from manufacturers such as BenQ, Pioneer and Plextor that all retail around $150.00, if not more. To make the statement more clear, we have decided to update our opening statement to generalize more brands and price points. We apologize for the confusion we may have caused, and thanks for taking the time to correct us.
Edited by BigTy, 17 January 2005 - 01:38 PM.
